The Next BRICs: Six Surging Countries You Must Pay Attention To This Decade

If you're bullish about Brazil, Russia, India, and China, then don't forget there is an entire second tier of less-appreciated-but-giant economic growth stories -- the MAVINS.

Commodities play a major role for these economies.

They are uniquely positioned to feed and benefit from global economic growth via their relative commodity advantages, yet at the same time they have massive domestic market expansion opportunities due to a surplus of under-utilized land or people.

With the right policies, these nations are likely to blow away expectations over time and become leading powers in their regions. The MAVINS combined economies could easily equal 60% of today's America by 2020, over 200% of today's America by 2050, and then keep growing robustly thereafter.

"M" Mexico

Don't let recent criminal violence fool you, Mexico will become an enormous economy.

Goldman Sachs even originally considered including the nation as a BRIC, but then removed it due to finding it 'too developed'. Yet Mexico still has a very, very long way to go, with GDP per capita on a purchasing power basis of just $14,300 vs. America's $47,500.

The country also boasts a growing middle class and a healthy population growth trajectory. At 111 million people now, Mexico is set to reach 125 million by 2020 and then 148 million by 2050.

Strategically positioned next to the world's largest economy, Mexico will rapidly close the income gap it has with the U.S., essentially as a direct extension of the U.S. economy.

2020 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $2.5 trillion* (17% of an America)

2050 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $10.9 trillion** (75% of an America)

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

*Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5% real GDP growth, 1% due to population growth and 4% due to productivity.

**Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~4.7% GDP growth, .7% due to population growth and 4% due to productivity.

"A" Australia

Australia is one of the most leveraged plays on global growth. Blessed with one of the richest commodities sources in the world, Australia literally provides the building blocks of Chinese growth and sits atop an vast reservoir of future wealth generation.

In addition, it has a well developed manufacturing and services economy, plus an enormous surplus of land.

Theoretically, Australia could one day be another America, if only they could solve the continent's water shortages and then exponentially increase the population through progressive immigration policies and cheap land. Yet they'll be huge even before considering such long-term population potential.

2020 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $1.5 trillion* (10% of an America)

2050 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $5.8 trillion** (40% of an America)

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

*Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5% real GDP growth, 1% due to population growth and 4% due to productivity. Population of 24 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

**Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~4.8% GDP growth, .8% due to population growth and 4% due to productivity. Population of 29 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

"V" Vietnam

Vietnam will undoubtedly be one of the hottest individual growth stories this decade.

Following the Chinese growth model, this communist country is rapidly liberalizing its economy while benefitting from the near-term political stability and centralized command and control that communism provides.

Agriculturally rich with a decent amount of oil, Vietnam is wasting no time to rapidly develop its manufacturing sector and move up the value chain. Coastally located with cheaper labor costs than many regional neighbors, relocating manufacturing to Vietnam will increasingly be a no-brainer. Even for Asian nations.

And its population will be huge. Already larger than France or Germany, Vietnam's population will comfortably exceed that of Japan by 2050. Vietnam's meteoric rise is virtually preordained.

2020 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $550 billion* (3.8% of an America)

2050 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $3.6 trillion** (25% of an America)

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

*Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~7% real GDP growth, 1% due to population growth and 6% due to productivity. Population of 98 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

**Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~6.6% GDP growth, .6% due to population growth and 6% due to productivity. Population of 111 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

"I" Indonesia

Despite decades of past military rule and corruption, today Indonesia is a fast growing economy, even if it comes in fits and spurts.

It's also come a long way politically and is one of the largest democracies in the world with 240 million people. That's more than France, Germany, and England combined.

Standards of living have a long way to rise as well, with GDP per capita of just $3,900, which means tons of future potential. For example, if Indonesia could simply hit Mexico's standard, its economy would be over three times its current size.

The country is rich in oil, gas, coal, tin, copper, silver, and gold, plus conveniently placed much closer to China and India than many other commodities sources. Finally, its long-term potential as a consumer market is enormous given that by 2050 it will have 313 million people, more than the U.S. has today.

2020 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $1.8 trillion* (13% of an America)

2050 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $9.3 trillion** (65% of an America)

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

*Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5.9% real GDP growth, .9% due to population growth and 5% due to productivity. Population of 267 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

**Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5.7% GDP growth, .7% due to population growth and 5% due to productivity. Population of 313 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

"N" Nigeria

Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa, and one of the most populous in the world, with 155 million people. Furthermore, it's expected to maintain an exceptionally high population growth rate through 2050, with a projected future 2050 population of 264 million people.

Undoubtedly the nation's growth story remains in its infancy, but we shouldn't dismiss this emerging African giant. Nigeria is growing and liberalizing its economy, having only recently emerged from its military past as a new democracy.

Extremely rich in oil, some might argue that Nigeria is just an oil-driven economy, but in the same sense it's highly leveraged to global growth. Plus, it has huge domestic market potential. If the right economic policies can be maintained, it's likely to diversify its economy over time. If GDP per capita could one day reach just Mexico's current level, the economy would quintuple.

2020 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $630 billion* (4% of an America)

2050 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $3 trillion** (21% of an America)

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

*Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5.4% real GDP growth, 1.4% due to population growth and 4% due to productivity. Population of 182 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

**Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5.3% GDP growth, 1.3% due to population growth and 4% due to productivity. Population of 264 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

"S" South Africa

South Africa is the most successful African economy with strong modern institutions, vast commodity wealth (gold, platinum, coal, diamonds), and an excellent location at the tip of Africa.

The nation has achieved a lot already, but there's still a long way to go. While one portion of the population lives a developed-nation lifestyle, almost half the population remains below the poverty line according to the CIA World Factbook. This speaks to the economic potential South Africa could unlock and surprise the world with.

We think it will happen. Already the economy is well diversified across mining, agriculture, services, and manufacturing, and like other MAVINS it can feed into global growth with its commodities advantage while developing its own domestic markets. Positioned as the gateway to Africa, South Africa will be the continent's financial hub as well. Look out for this rising star.

2020 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $880 billion* (6% of an America)

2050 Potential GDP in Today's Dollars: $2.6 trillion** (18% of an America)

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

*Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5% real GDP growth, 0% due to population growth and 5% due to productivity. Population of 49 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

**Assuming a back-of-the-envelope ~5% real GDP growth, 0% due to population growth and 5% due to productivity. Population of 49 million as per current Census Bureau forecasts.

Didn't make the cut: South Korea

South Korea is a developed country with globally competitive companies that will become an increasingly powerful force in the world. The country already has a $1.4 trillion economy, and was originally slated to be part of Goldman Sachs' BRICs, though in the end dropped. Its declining long-term population trend and lack of a commodity advantage precluded its inclusion as one of the MAVINS.

2008 GDP: $1.3 trillion

2008 Population: 48 million

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

Didn't make the cut: Philippines

The Philippines is an enormous Asian nation with substantial amounts of under-appreciated untapped potential. It's already more developed than Vietnam, but in the longer run we believe will be the less successful of the two, on a relative basis. The Philippines will nevertheless one day be a substantial economy in its own right.

2008 GDP: $318 billion

2008 Population: 98 million

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

Didn't make the cut: Pakistan

Pakistan has one of the largest populations in the world and is substantially underdeveloped. They're also right next to the massive Indian economy. Technically, Pakistan has vast potential for future growth. Thing is, they are long way from setting themselves on the clear economic growth path in our view and unfortunately remain hostile to their Indian neighbor.

2008 GDP: $431 billion

2008 Population: 176 million

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

Didn't make the cut: Turkey

Turkey is a massive 77 million person country, set to hit 100 million people by 2050. It's conveniently placed on the edge of Europe and the Middle East and full of modern manufacturing and agricultural industries. This was a close contender, but we felt it didn't have the explosive growth potential of some of the MAVINS have, nor the vast commodity advantage of a nation such as Australia.

2008 GDP: $904 billion

2008 Population: 77 million

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity

Didn't make the cut: Iran

Iran is a nation with massive potential and an already sizeable $844 billion economy. The nation is lucky to have vast energy resources plus decent population growth already in the cards. With the right institutions Iran could become a vibrant and leading Middle Eastern nation. Unfortunately the nation's economy and society remain constrained by politics. It's too early to call this one.

2008 GDP: $844 billion

2008 Population: 66 million

Source: CIA World Factbook, U.S. Census Bureau, GDP and GDP per capita using purchasing power parity